Good morning. Markets just had their worst session in three months after the ceasefire between the US and Iran collapsed overnight, and that shock is now rippling through oil prices, the rupee and everything downstream of them. Here is what matters today.
In today's newsletter: markets tumble as the Iran ceasefire collapses, the IOC clears Russia's return to the Olympics, and Modi lands in Melbourne to chase a decade-old uranium deal.
Closing levels · July 8, 2026
Sensex 76,503.60 -2.15% |
Nifty 50 23,882.05 -2.12% |
USD/INR ₹95.16 -20 paise |
Brent Crude $77.92 +5.06% |
Oil's spike and the rupee's slide are the direct read-through from Iran. If the ceasefire stays dead, expect both to move further before this settles.
Ceasefire collapses, Iran conflict reignites; Sensex posts its worst day in three months
President Trump declared on Wednesday that the ceasefire with Iran was "over," and the US military followed through with a second straight night of strikes, hitting a railway bridge near Aqqala and coastal cities including Sirik, Qeshm and Bandar Abbas. Iran had already struck American military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain.
The Sensex tumbled 1,677 points to close at 76,503.60, its worst session in three months, while the Nifty 50 shed 516 points to 23,882.05. The rupee slipped to 95.16 against the dollar and Brent crude jumped over 5% as tankers braced for renewed disruption near the Strait of Hormuz.
This flare-up matters more for India than most conflicts do, because it runs straight through the channel that carries a large share of the crude and LNG India imports. A second straight night of US strikes makes clear this is an active reopening of hostilities, not a one-off spasm, weeks after the two sides had only just paused fighting in June.
This is the second time in a month that a US-Iran truce has broken down, and each collapse has hit Indian markets harder than the last. With Brent back near $78 and the rupee under fresh pressure, the RBI's inflation math and the government's oil import bill both get harder just as the July-September quarter begins.
Export-heavy IT stocks, which earn in dollars, are one of the few pockets that could see relative support from a weaker rupee even as the broader market sells off, a small silver lining as the sector heads into a soft earnings season.
IOC clears Russia's path back to the Olympics, with conditions
The International Olympic Committee provisionally lifted its suspension of the Russian Olympic Committee, edging Russian athletes back toward international competition ahead of the Los Angeles 2028 Games. The ROC had been suspended since October 2023 for recognising regional sports bodies in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine.
It is not a full return. Russia's flag and anthem remain barred from international events until further notice, and individual sports federations will still decide case by case whether to let Russian athletes into qualifying events, including in sports where Indian athletes compete directly against them.
Modi lands in Melbourne to chase a decade-delayed uranium deal
Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Melbourne on Wednesday for a three-day visit built around the Australia-India Annual Leaders' Summit with Anthony Albanese, with talks set to cover defence, critical minerals and cybersecurity alongside a sold-out diaspora rally at Marvel Stadium.
The centrepiece is a long-stalled uranium supply agreement. Australia holds roughly 28% of the world's known uranium reserves, and the two countries have spent over a decade working through the regulatory hurdles left after their 2014 civil nuclear framework, hurdles officials now say are largely resolved as this visit gets underway.
Breaking.exe
IT earnings jitters. Brokerages have turned cautious on Infosys, TCS and Wipro heading into a soft Q1 FY27 print, citing AI-driven pricing pressure and weak enterprise demand just as TCS opens the sector's earnings season today. |
Inference chip race. OpenAI and Broadcom unveiled Jalapeno, a custom inference chip built around OpenAI's own architecture, the latest sign that AI labs want to control their hardware costs rather than depend entirely on Nvidia. |
Pangaea Revisited
Gaza toll rises. Israeli fire killed at least nine Palestinians, including two children, health officials said, the latest violence since the October ceasefire that Hamas says Israel keeps violating. |
Islamabad-Beijing ties. Pakistan and China reaffirmed their commitment to a closer strategic partnership, a reminder of the alignment India watches most closely in its own neighbourhood. |
Also, Also, Also
Monsoon almost there. The IMD says the southwest monsoon is set to cover the entire country within the next two to three days, with heavy rain already forecast for Jammu, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. |
South meets streaming. Ram Charan's sports drama Peddi and the Malayalam film Sing Geetham both arrive on Netflix today, part of a packed week of South Indian OTT premieres. |
IPOs open today. Laser Power & Infra's ₹742 crore issue and Devson Catalyst's smaller offering both opened for subscription on the NSE, part of a busy stretch for the SME and mainboard IPO market. |